美国今年的钻井总量将是80多年来最低水平紧凑型车

据油价网9月21日报道，世界石油公司(World Oil)已经完成了2020年中期钻井和生产预测更新的编制。在钻井方面，如果这一预测成为现实，美国今年的总钻井数量将肯定是1940年前以来的最低水平。事实上，它可以追溯到比上世纪30年代更早的时候。

但首先，运营商必须以低于1933年和1931年钻井速度的速度进行钻探，当时的钻井数分别为12,170口和11,716口。事实上，我们所看到的水平可能会低于这两年——低于11000口井——这是相当具有历史意义的，尽管非常负面。考虑到仅去年，估计钻井数量就超过了22000口，2018年，估计约为25000口。出于同样的原因，六年前，也就是2014年，美国油井总数为45535口。自那以后，每年的总数从未超过3万。

业绩背后的趋势。自今年2月初以来一直关注石油市场趋势的任何人都不会感到惊讶，今年的总趋势可能会低于1.1万口。在随后的七个月里，美国市场受到了以下因素的冲击：新冠疫情带来的创纪录、快速的石油需求减少；沙特-俄罗斯在生产配额问题上的争议加剧了需求减少的影响；运营商对随后出现的低价格的快速反应，包括关闭油井和减少或停止钻井；以及美国经济从疫情中复苏的速度低于预期。

经营者对低价和需求的反应。 更具体地说，世界石油公司(World Oil)收到了数十家生产商的调查回复，他们从今年第一季度的水平上削减了钻井量，而且大幅削减。许多公司表示，今年下半年的钻井数只有上半年的一半或不到一半。所以，假设一个运营商可能在上半年钻了100口井，而在下半年只钻了40口。或者，一家公司在切搅机上半年钻了65口井，而计划在下半年只钻20口。这些数字并不是任何一家公司的实际数字，但它们代表了我们接收到的数据类型。

此外，应该记住，2019年并不是最大钻探年份的开始。今年第一季度大多数运营商的钻井速度与去年大致相当。但从那时起，钻井就陷入了困境。今年第二季度，石油产量大幅下降，包括一些暂停钻井的公司。这些削减一直延续到第三季度，有些甚至比第二季度还要严重。我们预计，第四季度美国钻井活动将缓慢回升，我们的预测中也包含了这一预期。因此，如果这个数字没有上升，那么今年的最终数字将相应地更低。

区域的影响。毫不奇怪，美国多个页岩区感受到了钻探低谷期的最大影响，如石油活动一直占据主导地位的二叠纪、鹰福特（Eagle Ford）、Bakken和Niobrara。然而，尽管倾气性的Marcellus、Haynesville和Utica页岩（的确有石油成分）的钻探量出现了两位数的下降，但它们的倾油性区块的钻探量却没有下降。此外，在一些较小的州也有一些亮点，在印后设备这些州，传统的、垂直的、有时是浅层的石油开采活动更为普遍，实际上还会有小幅增长。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. drilling total for 2020 will be lowest in more than 80 years

At World Oil, we have finished compiling the 2020 mid-year forecast update for drilling and production. On the drilling side, that if this forecast is realized, the U.S. total for the year will definitely be the lowest since before 1940. Indeed, it could go back considerably further than the 1930s.

But first, operators will have to drill at a pace lower than those of 1933 and 1931, when well totals of 12,170 and 11,716, respectively, were tallied. The fact that we are looking at a level potentially below these two years—below 11,000 wells—is quite historical, albeit remarkably negative. And consider the fact that just last year, we estimate that somewhat over 22,000 wells were drilled, and in 2018, the number is estimated at approximately 25,000. By the same token, it wasn’t but six years ago, in 2014, that the U.S. well total was 45,535. There has not been an annual total above 30,000 since then.

Trends behind the performance. This year’s trend toward a total that may be below 11,000 should come as no surprise to anyone, who has been following oil market trends since early February. In the seven months that have followed, the U.S. market has been hit by a record, quick, oil demand reduction prompted by the coronavirus pandemic; the Saudi-Russian dispute over production quotas that exacerbated the effect of the demand reduction; operators’ quick response to low prices that ensued, including shutting-in wells and reducing or halting drilling; and a slower-than-expected recovery from the pandemic in the U.S. economy.

Operator responses to low prices and demand. To be more specific about operator activity, World Oil has received dozens of survey responses from producers, which have cut back their drilling from first-quarter 2020 levels, not just substantially but actually quite drastically. A number of companies said that in the second half of the year, they are drilling half, or less than half, of the number of wells that they drilled in the first half. So, imagine that an operator might have drilled 100 wells in the first half and will only drill 40 in the second half. Or maybe a firm drilled 65 wells in the first half and plans only 20 in the second half. These figures are NOT any one company’s actual numbers, bu鞋扣t they are representative of the types of data that we have been receiving.

Furthermore, one should remember that 2019 was not the greatest drilling year to begin with, and first-quarter drilling by most operators was roughly on a par with that year’s pace. But since then, drilling has gone off the cliff. There were substantial reductions during second-quarter 2020, including some companies that went on a drilling hiatus. These reductions have been carried through, into the third quarter, with a few that are even deeper than in the second quarter. We expect a mild pick-up in U.S. drilling during the fourth quarter, and our forecast has that expectation baked into it. So, if that pickup does not occur, then the final 2020 number will be even lower, accordingly.

Regional effec点温计ts. To no one’s surprise, the greatest effects of the drilling trough are being felt in the various U.S. shale plays, such as the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara, where oil activity has been dominant. However, while they have experienced double-digit declines in drilling, the gas prone Marcellus, Haynesville and Utica (which does have an oil component) shales have not experienced reductions in the magnitude of the oil-prone plays. And there are a few bright spots in some of the more minor states, where traditional, vertical, sometimes-shallow oil activity is more prevalent and will actually have minor increases.